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Apple Inc.’s customers will nearly double their spending on the company’s services offerings, such as Apple Pay and Apple Music, in the coming years, an analyst predicted Monday, meaning billions more in profit for the iPhone maker.

一位市场分析师在4月4日预测，未来几年，苹果用户用于购买苹果服务产品——如苹果支付（Apple Pay）和苹果音乐（Apple Music）——的费用将增长一倍，这意味着这家苹果制造厂商的利润将增加几十亿美元。

Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha conducted an analysis into Apple’s business and reported that investors might be underestimating and underappreciating the growth potential of services such as Apple Pay, Apple Care, Apple Music and iCloud.

瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）的市场分析师库尔宾德尔·格切(Kulbinder Garcha)分析了苹果的业务，称投资者可能低估苹果支付、Apple Care、苹果音乐（Apple Music）和苹果云服务（iCloud）此类服务产品的增长潜能。

Garcha estimates that gross profit related to services has grown to about $14.5 billion from $3.2 billion in 2010, and sees that more than doubling to nearly $34 billion by 2020. The amount each user spends on such services is expected to skyrocket by 85% to $113 a year by 2020 from roughly $61 today, helping to lift its share of Apple’s total profit to 29% from 15%—a number that could rise if Apple were to launch a TV service.

格切表示，与服务相关的毛利润将从2010年的32亿美元增长到145亿美元左右，同时预计到2020年会加倍，接近340亿美元。每个用户花费在此类服务产品的费用将从如今的约61美元，以85%的速率猛涨到2020年的113美元。这将有助于苹果提高利润总额，即从15%增加到29%，如果苹果推出电视服务，那么将会加大这个数据。

“It would be naive to assume that Apple will not enter the TV streaming business at some point and capitalize on more opportunities in the gaming segment as well,” Garcha said.

格切说道：“如果你觉得苹果到某个时刻不会开通电视流业务和利用游戏市场，那就太天真了。”

Garcha upped his price target on the stock to $150 from $140, reiterated a buy rating and added the stock to the bank’s “U.S. Focus List” of top investment ideas. Shares of Apple AAPL, +1.03% rose 1.6% to $111.75 in afternoon trade, pushing the price up 6% over the last three months, vs. a 4% increase for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

格切将股价从140美元提升自150美元，并重申”买入“，将苹果的股票添加入该银行顶级投资理念的“美国关注名单”之中。在5日午后盘，苹果的股票上涨了1.6%，报收111.75美元，较过去三个月增加6%，而道琼斯工业指数则增加4%。

Apple has relied on strong hardware sales, notably the iPhone, for the vast majority of its growth in the past few years. The iPhone accounted for 66% of Apple’s total revenue in fiscal 2015. However, saturation in the hardware market has increased the need for additional sources of revenue.

苹果依赖强劲的硬件销售，尤其是苹果手机，是过去几年的增长主力。2015财年，iPhone的销售客占苹果总收入66%。然而，硬件市场饱和就扩大了额外收入来源的需要。

Analysts expect Apple to sell 50 million smartphones in the fiscal second quarter, which would mark a year-over-year decline—the first ever for the product—from 61 million in the year-earlier period, according to FactSet. Total revenue related to iPhones is expected to shrink to $33 billion from $40.2 billion last year, and Garcha believes the iPhone business will contribute just 38% to gross margin by 2020.

据财经信息供应商FactSet数据显示，众多市场分析师预测，苹果在第二财季会售出5000万台智能手机，去年同期是6100万台，使得iPhone的销售量出现第一次同比下降。iPhone的总收入预计从去年的402亿美元减少到330亿美元。因此，格切认为，2020年苹果iPhone业务的毛利将只增长38%。

With Apple’s installed base of more than 1 billion devices, software services are seen as supplementing some of the slowdown in device sales as Apple homes in on an affluent user base willing to pay for premium services.

苹果的设备安装量超过10亿，苹果用户大多是有经济实力，愿意购买增值服务，因此，软件服务能够抵消设备销售的一些下滑情况。

Apple emphasized the importance of this growing market on a call with analysts in January. Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said the growth of the company’s installment base has accelerated the pace of service sales.

在一月时，苹果在与市场分析师的通话中，强调了这种成长性市场的重要性。苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）表示，苹果设备安装基数的增长加速服务销售的步伐。

Cook called services another “large and important source of recurring revenues” for Apple, with the aggregate purchase value of services tied to the company’s installed base climbing 23% year-over-year to more than $31 billion in fiscal 2015.

库克称将这些服务称作是苹果另一种“巨大和重要的源源不断的收益来源”，而服务的总购买价值跟苹果的安装基数相关联——在2015财政年同比增长了23%，超310亿美元。

“We have tremendously satisfied and loyal customers who are engaged with our services at a fast-growing rate,” Apple Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri said on the call with analysts.”

苹果首席财务官卢卡·迈斯特里（Luca Maestri）在与市场分析师的通话中说道：“我们对此十分满意，使用我们服务的忠实消费者也在快速增加。”

Garcha estimates Apple has a user base of 588 million active and “highly affluent” consumers, and believes the company can “conservatively” derive 55% of gross profit from annuity-type businesses, such as services and the iPhone installment and upgrade plans, by 2020.

据格切估计，苹果的活跃用户数为5.88亿且“十分富裕”。他认为，到了2020年，苹果能够“很保守地”从年金式业务中获取55%的毛利，这些业务包括服务项目，iPhone的安装和升级计划。

While Apple’s growth has historically been based on actual point of sale hardware units, the installed base actually presents “a largely reoccurring cash flow stream,” he said.

他表示，长期以来，苹果的销售增长是依靠硬件设备的销售点，而实际上，设置安装数量则向大家展现“一大股现金流再次发生。”