墨西哥反倾销案:中国是赢家还是输家?

原标题：输掉战役，而不是战争THEBATTLEISLOSTBUTNOTHEWAR!最近，中国陶...





原标题：输掉战役，而不是战争

THE BATTLE IS LOST BUT NO THE WAR!

最近，中国陶瓷行业代表团造访墨西哥，尝试解决反倾销案。

A delegation of Chinese representatives of the ceramic Industry recently traveled to Mexico in an effort to make a settlement to the dumping case with this country.

我猜，和解方案的细节已经事先在最受影响的中国企业之间达成了一致。

I guess that the details of this settlement proposal have been already previously agreed among the affected Chinese companies that were making significant exports to Mexico (“The most affected”).

为了不谈太多的协商细节，这么说吧，中国的代表团会把一个提案放到桌面上供起诉方考虑。

In order not to talk too much about the  details of the way this was going to be negotiated , the reps from China put an offer on the table to be considered by the demanding side.

简单来说这个提案提出了一个最低采购价。问题是：这能解决问题并且结束墨西哥的反倾销吗？谁赢？谁输？

To make the explanation of the proposal simple, a minimum purchasing price was proposed. The question here is: Would this resolve and put to an end the dumping case with Mexico? Who wins? Who lose?

考虑到最终解决方案还没有出来，这是我非常主观的一些观点：

Here is my very personal point of view of the situation considering that there has not been yet any final resolution:

受影响最大的、远远低于最低采购价格的种类是600×600mm渗花抛光砖。下一个是略低于最低采购价格的600×600mm更简单的微粉砖以及600×600mm的瓷质釉面砖（喷墨或者辊筒技术）。

Most affected items that way below of the minimum price: Soluble salts 60x60 polished products. Next one that were purchased a little below the minimum priced proposed: 60x60 simpler double loading products and 60x60 glazed porcelains (Ink jet or roller technology)

如果这个提案被接受的话，会发生什么情况呢：会输掉这个战役，但是不是战争！为什么我会这么说？因为：

If this proposal is accepted this is what is going to happen: The battle will be lost but not the war! Why do I say so? Because at this minimum price proposed:

实话说，我不认为还有哪些墨西哥企业还会从中国购买上述三种产品。这些产品的采购将会转移到印度，越南和西班牙。

I honestly don’t think that any company from Mexico will continue buying any of these 3 product styles from China. The purchasing of these products will be diverted to India, Vietnam and Spain.

大部分采购量很大的公司非常了解这些产品来自其他生产国的价格，比如说：意大利，西班牙，巴西，印度，土耳其，越南，印度尼西亚等等。而且不光了解价格，他们还很清楚从这些国家能够以最有竞争力的价格采购到产品的类型。

Most companies that import thousands of square meters of tile per month know very well the pricing from many other manufacturing countries like: Italy, Spain, Brazil, India, Turkey, Vietnam, Indonesia and so on. And not only the pricing but the styles that could be purchased in these countries at the most competitive prices

渗花和微粉产品将会以平均低于中国30%的价格从印度或者越南采购。

The soluble salts and double loading goods could be purchased from India or Vietnam at 30% average lower pricing than China.

我们很清楚从印度或者越南采购，无论从物流上来讲，还是差旅，住宿，甚至在这两个国家设立办公室的挑战上来讲都不如中国方便。但是价格的差异是如此大，你基本上没得选择。

We know very well that buying from India or Vietnam IS NOT as convenient as buying from China, logistically speaking, traveling, living or even the challenge of establishing an office in these two countries. But the pricing difference is SO BIG that you simply DO NOT have a choice.

瓷质釉面产品可以以相同的价格从西班牙购买，而且这个国家产品进口到墨西哥是零关税。

The glazed porcelain products could be purchased at the same pricing from Spain and this country has “zero” import duty with Mexico.

更高端的产品，比如说更加有档次的600×600mm或者800×800mm规格的微粉产品，1200mm规格的木纹，微晶石和大理石类的800×800mm, 900×900mm, 600×1200mm 规格的抛光类产品，甚至很可能一些更大规格的瓷质釉面产品，比如说600×1200mm, 800×800mm, 900×900mm规格，这些很有可能仍然从中国采购，因为从那些国家你找不到比这些更有竞争力的价格了。

The higher end products like more sophisticated double loading products 60x60 or 80x80, Wood Planks 120 size, polished products in crystal, marble ceramics in 80x80, 90x90, 60x120 and even quite possibly glazed porcelains in bigger sizes like 60x120, 80x80, 90x90 could possible still be purchased from China because you can’t get them at the competitive pricing from this country

这就是为什么我精确地说：一场战役可能失败，但是战争没有。中国将不会有能力保持600mm规格渗花砖和简单的600mm规格微粉砖的出口，但是其它产品可能获救。

That is the reason why I precisely say: a battle or the battle probably will be lost but not the war. China will not be able to keep exporting soluble salts and simple double loading polished in 60x60 but the other products might have been saved!

为了得到一些，你必须先做出放弃。

You have to give in order to receive……

还没有输掉战争（倾销案全面执行），没有100%地停掉向墨西哥的瓷砖产品出口！

The war was not lost (Fully executed Dumping case) stopping 100% of ceramic good exports to Mexico!

但是最后，我想要给你们一条建议：如果这个预测发生了（它很有可能会），你一定要极其重视产品的质量和设计。游戏将会彻底地改变。

But last……I want to give you a piece of advice: If this prediction happens (And it probably will) you MUST pay a lot of attention to the quality and design of your products. The game is going to change COMPLETELY!

而且，如果你认为将来你能够出口到墨西哥，价格将不会再是一个决定因素了；甚至其重要性根本无法跟过去相提并论。只有最好的产品，而且这里最好我指的是在设计，质量和风格上面真正拥有世界级的竞争力的产品，这些才能让它们出口到墨西哥。

And if you think you will be able to export to Mexico in the future, pricing will not be a factor anymore; not even close to the relevance it had in the past. ONLY the best products, and by best I mean products that have WORLD CLASS competitiveness in design, quality and style will make it out of China to Mexico.

谁赢了？中国陶瓷行业，避免了反倾销的死刑判罚。更好的以设计和质量为导向的企业。

Who wins? China Ceramic Industry by avoiding the dumping death penalty. The better, more design, quality oriented companies.

谁输了？所有以价格驱动生产超级常规的产品并把价格拉到不可思议之低的那些企业。

Who lose? The entire price driven companies making the SUPER commodity goods that drove the pricing to incredibly low prices.

再一次，我要澄清一下，这只是一个预测，我个人的预测，而且什么都还没有被决议下来。但是很快，我们会知道，也许比我们期待的更快！

Again I want to clarify that this is just a prediction, my personal prediction and nothing has been settled just yet. But very soon we will know, probably sooner than we expect!

做最好的希望，做最坏的打算！

Hope the best, expect the worst!

[ 作者｜汉贝托Humberto Valles系广东新风景陶瓷有限公司（ICC瓷砖）总经理、InDesign创意总监；翻译｜耿海波 ]



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