封面文章: 亚马逊正在成为世界最卓越的公司

 

题图: 来自Zoommy《经济学人》封面文章:2017年3月25日刊Amazon, the world’s...



题图: 来自Zoommy

《经济学人》封面文章:2017年3月25日刊

Amazon, the world’s most remarkable firm, is just getting started

亚马逊是一家非凡的公司,这家原本只是卖书的公司现在已经占据了全美每年网上超过一半的消费,并且还是全球最大的云计算服务提供商。今年亚马逊还将投入HBO两倍的资金用于用于电视拍摄。亚马逊自有品牌商品包括电子产品、食品、服饰,还有能够控制你家里台灯和洒水器的虚拟助手——智能音箱。

AMAZON is an extraordinary company. The former bookseller accounts for more than half of every new dollar spent online in America. It is the world’s leading provider of cloud computing. This year Amazon will probably spend twice as much on television as HBO, a cable channel. Its own-brand physical products include batteries, almonds, suits and speakers linked to a virtual voice-activated assistant that can control, among other things, your lamps and sprinkler.

但是亚马逊的股东认为这仅仅只是个开始,2015年初它的股价上升了173%。增幅是两年前的七倍,是标准普尔五百指数的12倍。亚马逊市值约4000亿美元,是个全球市值第五大公司。从未有过一个公司拥有如此大的市值,却只赚极少的钱,92%的市值体现在2020年之后的收益。

Yet Amazon’s shareholders are working on the premise that it is just getting started. Since the beginning of 2015 its share price has jumped by 173%, seven times quicker than in the two previous years (and 12 times faster than the S&P 500 index). With a market capitalisation of some $400bn, it is the fifth-most-valuable firm in the world. Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.

投资者不仅期望亚马逊收入飙升(从去年的1360亿美元的收入,在未来的十年内达到5000亿),并且也期望获得高额利润。这种期望意味着亚马逊将成为全美最赚钱的公司。当然,随之而来的怀疑也就是:亚马逊必须要成为现代历史上最快速增长的公司,相比其他大公司而言都要快速增长的多。它能够做到吗?

That is because investors anticipate both an extraordinary rise in revenue, from sales of $136bn last year to half a trillion over the next decade, and a jump in profits. The hopes invested in it imply that it will probably become more profitable than any other firm in America. Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation. Can it possibly do so?

很容易可以列举出一些现实存在的困难。比如,竞争者也不会袖手旁观,微软在云计算上同样具有野心;沃尔玛的销售收入已经接近5000亿,并正在加强它的在线市场;另外,如果亚马逊的创始人及老板杰夫·贝索斯发生什么意外的话,那么这个目标就更难达成了。对于这个公司来说,最显著的问题在于,有多少机会能够达成这些空前的目标?

It is easy to tick off some of the pitfalls. Rivals will not stand still. Microsoft has cloud-computing ambitions; Walmart already has revenues nudging $500bn and is beefing up online. If anything happened to Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and boss, the gap would be exceptionally hard to fill. But the striking thing about the company is how much of a chance it has of achieving such unprecedented goals (see article).

A new sort of basket-case

这源于该公司在两个方面做出的非同寻常的举动。首先是时间线上的。在一个管理层受到股东压力聚焦短期收益的年代,亚马逊非常坚决的聚焦于长期投资。贝索斯一再强调他的投资在驱动他的两项商业基础:电子商务和云计算(AWS)。

This is largely due to the firm’s unusual approach to two dimensions of corporate life. The first of these is time. In an era when executives routinely whinge about pressure to produce short-term results, Amazon is resolutely focused on the distant horizon. Mr Bezos emphasises continual investment to propel its two principal businesses, e-commerce and Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud-computing arm.

电子商务方面,亚马逊给予更多的商铺以让利,这也让更多的零售商和生产商愿意在亚马逊上出售他们的货物。亚马逊也因此有更多的现金来发展它的新业务,比如两小时的快递送达业务,还有视频音乐媒体流等。同样的,在云计算方面,越多的客户使用AWS,亚马逊也能够有更多的资金来投资新服务,吸引更多的客户。比如围绕Alexa构建的第三方虚拟生态圈:开发者可以为Alexa构建服务,对客户更有用,这也让开发者有更多的理由去创建AWS服务。

In e-commerce, the more shoppers Amazon lures, the more retailers and manufacturers want to sell their goods on Amazon. That gives Amazon more cash for new services—such as two-hour shipping and streaming video and music—which entice more shoppers. Similarly, the more customers use AWS, the more Amazon can invest in new services, which attract more customers. A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa, the firm’s voice-activated assistant: as developers build services for Alexa, it becomes more useful to consumers, giving developers reason to create yet more services.

只要股东对这种商业模型持有信心。亚马逊就能实现它的估值预期。亚马逊会一如既往的花大钱投资,来保持它强大的竞争力。当然亚马逊也有过失败的记录,那就是它曾在智能手机上惨败。但现在它的业务已经开始赚钱,去年亚马逊的现金流是160亿美元,比五年前翻了四倍。

So long as shareholders retain their faith in this model, Amazon’s heady valuation resembles a self-fulfilling prophecy. The company will be able to keep spending, and its spending will keep making it more powerful. Their faith is sustained by Amazon’s record. It has had its failures—its attempt to make a smartphone was a debacle. But the business is starting to crank out cash. Last year cashflow (before investment) was $16bn, more than quadruple the level five years ago.

亚马逊在时间线上的策略是非同寻常的,而它在业务领域的广度上同样野心勃勃。在公司年报中,当前以及潜在的竞争对手中,有物流公司、搜索引擎、社交媒体、食品生产商,以及“物理、电子、交互媒体及所有类型的生产商”。业务领域如此之大,以至于它已经不是一个零售商,而是一个大型的综合集团。这也让亚马逊的股价看起来比实际的高:股票市场曾对此专门有一种“多元化折让”的策略来反映这种多元化企业股价超出他们实际的情况。

If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities. The company’s list of current and possible competitors, as described in its annual filings, includes logistics firms, search engines, social networks, food manufacturers and producers of “physical, digital and interactive media of all types”. A wingspan this large is more reminiscent of a conglomerate than a retailer, which makes Amazon’s share price seem even more bloated: stockmarkets typically apply a “conglomerate discount” to reflect their inefficiencies.

亚马逊提供的服务支撑了它自身的扩张,很明显的例子是AWS让亚马逊拥有其他公司一样的能力。亚马逊也会去租用仓库,它花了十五亿美元在肯塔基修建了飞机仓库。它还在测试一种技术让用户可以不用现金交易,并且让无人机运送到家。因此很多人认为亚马逊会成为一种新的必需品:它在提供一种从计算资源,到交易,到物流的商业基础能力。

Many of these services support Amazon’s own expansion and that of other companies. The obvious example is AWS, which powers Amazon’s operations as well as those of other firms. But Amazon also rents warehouse space to other sellers. It is building a $1.5bn air-freight hub in Kentucky. It is testing technology in stores to let consumers skip the cash register altogether, and experimenting with drone deliveries to the home. Such tools could presumably serve other customers, too. Some think that Amazon could become a new kind of utility: one that provides the infrastructure of commerce, from computing power to payments to logistics.

巨人不能隐藏 A giant cannot hide

这里列举了一些亚马逊实际的问题。如果亚马逊按照股东的期望去发展,那么它很快会受到监管者的注意。现在亚马逊还不太可能成为反垄断的目标,它还不算是美国最大的零售商。美国的反垄断机构主要看公司对于顾客和定价的影响。从这个视角来看,亚马逊还算是比较干净的。顾客欣赏它,根据哈里斯调查的报告,它是全美最受尊敬的公司。

And here lies the real problem with the expectations surrounding Amazon. If it gets anywhere close to fulfilling them, it will attract the attention of regulators. For now, Amazon is unlikely to trigger antitrust action. It is not yet the biggest retailer in America, its most mature market. America’s antitrust enforcers look mainly at a firm’s effect on consumers and pricing. Seen through this lens, Amazon appears pristine. Consumers applaud it; it is the most well-regarded company in America, according to a Harris poll. (AWS is a boon to startups, too.)

但随着它的发展,它的能力也会被监管者担心。因为即使按照标准的反垄断流程,这也会存在问题。如果亚马逊能够像它的投资者期望那样赚钱,那么它的利润将是西方其他所有的零售商加上媒体厂商公司总和的1/4。 监管者也会考虑技术的问题而改变策略。在欧洲,谷歌因为它的搜索引擎延伸到其他的商业领域受到抨击。数字平台的法律责任的豁免权利正在被剥夺,比如Facebook要承担其上煽动性内容发布的责任,Uber也要审查它的司机。

But as it grows, so will concerns about its power. Even on standard antitrust grounds, that may pose a problem: if it makes as much money as investors hope, a rough calculation suggests its earnings could be worth the equivalent of 25% of the combined profits of listed Western retail and media firms. But regulators are also changing the way they think about technology. In Europe, Google stands accused of using its clout as a search engine to extend its power to adjacent businesses. The comparative immunity from legal liability of digital platforms—for the posting of inflammatory content on Facebook, say, or the vetting of drivers on Uber—is being chipped away.

亚马逊的商业模型也会让监管者重新思考。投资者看重亚马逊的发展多于它的利润,这也让掠夺性定价更具有诱惑力。在未来企业很可能会依赖它最大的竞争对手的工具。如果亚马逊成为商业基础工具,那么它也很可能会被监管者认为是独家垄断。股东相信亚马逊的潜力,但亚马逊的成功也会让它遇上更为强大的对手——政府。

Amazon’s business model will also encourage regulators to think differently. Investors value Amazon’s growth over profits; that makes predatory pricing more tempting. In future, firms could increasingly depend on tools provided by their biggest rival. If Amazon does become a utility for commerce, the calls will grow for it to be regulated as one. Shareholders are right to believe in Amazon’s potential. But success will bring it into conflict with an even stronger beast: government.


    关注 胡涂说


微信扫一扫关注公众号

0 个评论

要回复文章请先登录注册