银发市场：当婴儿潮一代步入老年

《经济学人》述评：老年人将改写现代商业版图。...

手绘图：花菜菜

最新一期《经济学人》发表题为“The grey market”的熊彼特专栏文章，预言老年人即将成为消费主力，提醒商家尽早制订商业战略计划。

1965年，《Vogue》主编Diana Vreeland形容婴儿潮一代（baby boomers）对流行文化的冲击为“youth-quake”；五十年后的今天，随着这代人的老去也即将给世界带来“grey-quake”。在西方发达国家，60岁以上人群正快速增长，预计到2030年增长三分之一，从目前的1.64亿人口增加到2.22亿。得益于房产增值和养老金，老年人的消费力很强：目前，60岁以上人群每年花费约4万亿美元，这个数字只会网上蹭。

不过，商家显然对这一趋势准备不足。原因之一可能是因为现代的商业主要由年轻人操盘，而他们显然不把“老东西们”放在眼里。女权主义者Germaine Greer吐槽道“就因为我六十多了，感觉他们都不愿卖东西给我。“调研机构fast.Map和Involve Millennium发现，68%的英国65~74岁的老人发现电视广告卖的东西跟他们无关。但文章认为，更重要的原因在于老年人，认为他们是一群难以把握的消费群体（slippery customer）——“老”的定义太复杂、太复杂：六十五岁的老和八十五岁的老是不一样的；老年人之间也出现了分层：有房有稳定养老金的老年人有大把的钱花不出去，也有人老了需要寻求慈善机构的援助（美联储统计，在美国，31%的工薪阶级没有养老金计划或存款）。而且，绝大多数发达国家的老年人压根不服老：61%的人声称他们感觉比实际年龄要年轻九岁！

所以，如何摸索出一套针对老年人的商业计划书的确很难，已知的经验教训是商家千万不能把他们当老年人。文章介绍了两个失败的案例：

• 案例1:宝洁（Procter & Gamble）出品了一款标明“专为五十岁以上人士设计”的健齿产品，结果销量非常差。
• 案例2:Bridgestone推出了“转为老年人（pensioners）”的高尔夫场地，销量也很差。

文章提醒，千万要重视老年人这块市场，因为他们已经成为全球经济为数不多的增长引擎：新兴经济体增速放缓；千禧一代正肩负着助学贷款和08年金融危机后遗症的双重负担。麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI） 统计，发达国家退休人员人均消费在3.9万美元，而30~44岁人群的消费力为2.95万美元。文章也介绍了很多美国公司小心翼翼（mastering the art of discretion）探索的例子，比如福特汽车要求工程师穿上“老年服”（third-age suit）来更好的理解老年需求以便设计出适合老年人的汽车；辅助停车系统；彩色拐杖等等。

从人群特点来分析，婴儿潮一代在年轻时就制造噪音、藐视权威、寻求关注，所以他们注定不会安安静静地老去。另外，他们将是人类历史上最庞大、最有钱、最长寿的一代老年人。

看来，在资本主义国家，“关爱老人就是关爱自己”绝不仅仅是句空洞的道德口号！封面选自Economist

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最近一段时间《经济学人》官网可能不太稳定。小编先做回搬运工，把原文附上。

还是原来的口号：相信厚积薄发的力量！欢迎大家多给反馈！IN 1965 Diana Vreeland, the editor-in-chief of Vogue, coined a phrase “youth-quake” to describe how baby-boomers were shaking up popular culture. Today the developed world is in the early stages of a “grey-quake”. Those over 60 constitute the fastest-growing group in the populations of rich countries, with their number set to increase by more than a third by 2030, from 164m to 222m. Older consumers are also the richest thanks to house-price inflation and generous pensions. The over-60s currently spend some $4 trillion a year and that number will only grow.

Yet companies have been relatively slow to focus on this expanding market—certainly slower than they were to attend to the youth-quake. The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) calculates that less than 15% of firms have developed a business strategy focused on the elderly. The Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister organisation to The Economist, found that only 31% of firms it polled did take into account increased longevity when making plans for sales and marketing.

One reason for this tardiness is that young people dominate marketing departments and think that the best place for the old is out of sight and mind. Germaine Greer, a feminist, speaks for her generation, as usual, when she says that “just because I’m over 60 nobody wants to sell to me.” A study by fast.Map, a marketer, and Involve Millennium, a consultant, found 68% of British 65-74-year-olds “don’t relate” to advertising that they see on television.

But the biggest reason is that oldies are such slippery customers. The definition of what it means to be “old” is complicated and dynamic. Sixty-five-year-olds are not the same as 85-year-olds. Age affects people in different ways: some fade early while others march on. Class divisions are more marked now than for previous generations of retirees: the winners, sitting on suburban mansions and defined-benefit pensions, cannot spend their money fast enough, while losers go cap in hand to charities (31% of working-age Americans don’t have a pension or savings, according to the Federal Reserve). Most greying baby-boomers in the rich world are in denial about ageing: 61% say that they feel at least nine years younger than their chronological age.

The surest way of alienating older consumers is to treat them as old. When Procter & Gamble, a consumer-goods company, repackaged some of its dental products as “selected for aged fifty-plus consumers”, it saw sales plunge. Bridgestone blundered by promoting a new line of golf cubs as one for pensioners, producing poor sales.

Yet change is in the air. Some industries such as health care and automobiles have been thinking about the grey market for a while. Others such as retailing and consumer goods started paying attention more recently. Now comes the silver rush. A report by the McKinsey Global Institute points out that older consumers are one of the few engines of growth in an otherwise sluggish global economy. The emerging-market boom is slowing in some countries, notably China, and turning into a bust in others, notably Brazil. Millennials suffer from the twin burdens of student debt (especially in America) and the lingering effects of the 2008 financial crisis. They are starting families and buying houses later than their parents, if at all. MGI calculates that pensioners in the rich world spend an average of $39,000 on consumption compared with $29,500 for the 30-44 age group. The old are becoming the new new thing.

Some firms are trying to understand older people better. Kimberley-Clark, a maker of consumer products, has built a mock-up of what a senior-friendly shop might look like in the future. Ford has created a “third-age suit” for car designers to wear to help them understand the needs of older people: the suit thickens the waist, stiffens the joints and makes movement more cumbersome. Thick gloves reduce the sense of touch and yellow-tinted goggles simulate eye cataracts. BCG research on older people suggests they are less eager to acquire material possessions than preceding generations and much keener to acquire experience, particularly through travel and study.

Understanding is giving birth to new products and business models. NTT DoCoMo not only produced a phone with large keys and a big display screen. It also redesigned it marketing, promoting the new phones during bus tours for pensioners and providing classes in shops to explain the ins-and-outs of apps. Electronics makers are producing devices that are designed specifically for old people: for example, Independa manufactures a monitor that sends an alert if something untoward happens, making it easier for the frail elderly to stay in their own homes (“age in place”) rather than move to nursing homes.

Companies are also mastering the art of discretion—addressing older people, but not too explicitly. Retailers are surreptitiously lowering shelves and putting in carpets to make it harder to slip. Package-goods firms are printing larger typefaces and using more white space. Kimberley-Clark has overhauled its Depend brand of adult nappies to make them more like regular underwear. Sabi, a design company, now sells walking canes in bright colours. Car firms don’t make a song and dance about the fact that old people with stiff necks and fading vision will benefit disproportionately from self-parking cars.

One foot in the gravy

Yet this is only the early stages of a revolution. Baby-boomers have spent their lives making noise and demanding attention. They are not going to stop now. They will be the biggest and richest group of pensioners in history. They will also be the longest lived: many will spend more time in retirement than they did working. The baby-boomers have changed everything they have touched since their teenage years, leaving behind them a trail of inventions, from pop culture to two-career families. Retirement is next on the list.

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