机器人一工作，人类就失业？

幸福新世界...

不管承不承认，机器人时代已经来临。

Cars drive themselves. Robots deliver pizza. Robots and artificial intelligence have come a long way since a Roomba entered your home to vacuum your floor and Siri gave you advice on the best Italian restaurants in your parents’ neighborhood.

汽车开始自动驾驶，机器人能够快递披萨，我们使用吸尘器清理房间，Siri开始给父母推荐家庭附近的最好的意大利餐厅，机器人和人工智能已经一步步渗入我们的生活。一场革命正在到来

根据2013年牛津大学的一份报告显示，在未来二十年，接近一半的美国的工作将会被自动化工作的机器人取代。这份报告预言交通运输、物流、仓储相关的工作最容易被自动化机器取代，还有设想认为机器取代教师、旅行顾问、翻译以及其他一些行业的工作只是时间问题。

对于人类的未来，目前有两种比较主流的观点：

1）a dystopia where humans no longer have jobs or incomes, leading to increased income inequality and social upheaval;

一个反乌托邦社会，人们没有工作也没有收入，阶层收入不平等加剧，社会剧烈动荡。

2）a utopia where governments give incomes to their citizens, who will then be able to lead more productive, creative and entrepreneurial lives.

一个乌托邦社会，政府发补贴给所有的市民，社会的效率更高、更有创造性、企业的生命力也更强。还有一个比较不同的观点在于：

Robots in the workforce present an opportunity to stimulate job growth and create new types of work. Robots will not merely take jobs, they’ll also create them.

工作领域里机器人的加入提供了一个能够促进工作增长诞生新的工作形态的机会。机器人不只是取代已有的工作，它们还会创造新的工作。

人类的历史是一部技术发展史

While technology advances at an unprecedented rate, our era is not the first to undergo significant technological change. In each case, these technologies led to new industries and jobs.

虽然现代社会技术在以前所未有的速度发展，我们的时代并非是第一个历经技术巨变的时代。在历史上的每个时期，技术的进步都导致了新的行业和工作的产生。

The invention of the printing press in 1440 allowed the mass production of books, leading to jobs to manufacture books, transport them, market them and sell them. Print shops sprung up. The fall in printing costs led to newspapers. Yes, the printing press put scribes out of business, but new jobs were soon developed to take their place.

1440年左右印刷术的诞生导致了书籍的印刷生产、运输、市场售卖方面的大量工作。随着印刷厂大量涌现，技术进步印刷成本降低，报纸开始出现。虽然印刷术的出现使得抄写员这一职位消失了，但是更多新的工作被创造了出来。

未来的工作是什么样

We can get a sense of what jobs of the future will look like by looking at robots’ weaknesses and humans’ strengths. Robots do not yet have the ability to perform complex tasks like negotiation or persuading, and they are not as proficient in generating new ideas as they are at solving problems. This means jobs requiring creativity, emotional intelligence and social skills are unlikely to be filled by robots any time soon.

我们可以通过了解机器人和人类的优劣处来预测未来的工作。机器人现在还不能处理像谈判沟通这类复杂工作，它们在创意领域也不像处理普通问题那么得心应手。

We all know how great it is when technology works — and how frustrating it is when it doesn’t. When something goes wrong, it is often a human who needs to fix it. Robots will have glitches, need updates and require new parts. There will always be a need for on-site, human labor and expertise when we deal with machines.

我们都知道机器运转顺利的时候有多棒，也知道出故障的时候有多让人郁闷，这个时候就需要人类来修理它们。机器们会有小故障，而人类可以帮助更新及替换零部件。当我们使用机器的时候，总是会需要相关的人力和专家的。Not everyone will need to be an engineer to find jobs created by robots.

在寻找机器创造的新工作的时候，并非人人都要去当个工程师。

Technology has not only created departments and jobs within companies, but created the need for entirely new companies and businesses.

A 2011 study showed job creation will extend beyond the STEM（science, technology, engineering and mathematics） fields. The authors identified six industries where employment was likely to increase directly because of robots: automotive, electronics, renewable energy, skilled systems, robotics and food and beverage.

技术进步带来的不仅仅是公司内部的变迁，而是创造了整个公司和行业的新需求。

2011年的一份报告显示，新技术带来的新职业将超出科学、技术、机械及数学四个领域，作者还预测了六个将因为机器人的大量使用而导致就业率显著增加的行业：自动化、电子信息、可再生能源、技术系统、机器人学以及餐饮行业。

From | TechCrunch

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