气候排放协议

世界携手应对气候变化 Fight climate change

Complicatedproblemsdonotgenerallyyieldtosimple...

Complicated problems do not generally yield to simple solutions. And few are more complex than the question of how to confront the challenge posed by an thropogenic global warming.

简单的解决方法往往无法解决复杂的问题。而很少有问题比如何应对人类活动所致全球变暖带来的挑战更复杂的了。

The Paris climate accord, signed amid great fanfare on Saturday by the representatives of nearly 200 states, does not supply the final answer. What it does is to spread the responsibility for finding one beyond a small coterie of developed countries. This in itself is a historic achievement. But its success or failure ultimately hinges on how solemnly its many signatories are willing to accept this weighty charge.

周六，近200个国家的代表们隆重地签署了巴黎气候协议，然而这份协议并没有提供最终的答案。这份协议真正做到的是，将寻找最终答案的责任分摊到了少数发达国家之外。这本身是一项历史性成就。但其成败最终取决于巴黎气候协议的众多签署国是否愿意担起这份沉重的责任。

The preparedness of the developing world to accept a share of the burden was always vital if any credible way forward on tackling climate change was possible. Past deals have mainly heaped the onus on those advanced economies that were responsible for much of the historic growthin emissions.

要让气候变化问题的解决可能有可行的道路取得进展，十分关键的是，发展中国家要有承担一部分责任的意愿。过去的气候协议主要将责任置于发达经济体肩上，它们曾是过去碳排放增长的主要来源。

But with China and India alone now responsible for a third of global carbon discharges between them, their presence in any future frame work agreed at Paris was essential. Without it, nodeal could even have curbed future increases at a global level, let alonestarted to drive them down.

但中国和印度这两个国家碳排放量之合现在占全球碳排放总量的三分之一，它们参与在巴黎商定的任何未来框架至关重要。如果这两个国家不参与，没有什么协议能够遏制未来全球碳排放水平的上升，更别提降低全球碳排放水平了。

The French hosts, under the able leadership of foreign minister Laurent Fabius, deserve credit for finally squaring this circle and forging a compromise that both developed and developing worlds could accept. The price, as expected, is the jettisoning for the most part of any pretence at copper-bottomed legal obligations of the sort that characterisedthe last global deal, the ill-fated 1997 Kyoto accord.

在法国外长洛朗法比尤斯(Laurent Fabius)有力的领导下，法国主办方最终完成了这个不可能的任务，促成了一项发达国家和发展中国家都能接受的折中方案，这一点值得赞誉。像预想的那样，代价就是基本上放弃自诩具备可靠的法律约束力，上一个全球气候协定、以失败告终的1997年《京都议定书》的典型特征就是具备可靠的法律约束力。

While the deal sets a new tougher objectiveto limit global warming to “well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels”(and, indeed, a stretch goal of 1.5 degrees), there are no binding mechanisms for achieving this. The climate action plans submitted by an impressive 188 of those countries participating do not cumulatively deliver even the less demanding total. They would lead to temperatures rising by some 2.7 per cent.Yet signatories are under no legal obligation to meet even these.

尽管这项协议设立了一个更严格的新目标，要把全球“较工业化前水平升温幅度控制在远不到2摄氏度之内”（事实上，协议还设立了升温幅度在1.5度以内的更高目标），但协议没有促使这一目标实现的约束机制。由签署国中多达188个国家提交的气候行动方案加起来，也无法实现哪怕较低的那个总目标。这些方案只能将全球气温较工业化前升幅限制在约2.7摄氏度以内。然而，即使是这样的目标，签署国都没有任何法律义务要实现。

What the plan does require is for signatory states to set out their plans to avert climate change every five years. The semust be accompanied by an assessment of current progress, compiled according to a common reporting standard that permits comparisons to be drawn.

方案真正提出要求的是，签署国需要每5年制定计划遏制气候变化。签署国同时还需要对已取得的进展进行评估，评估结果的编纂需要基于相同的报告标准，以便进行比较。

The hope is that this will create the necessary frame work for regular reviews on progress as the world tries to avoiddangerous warming. It may not be possible to compel countries to meet their targets. But by embedding transparent information exchanges and regularinternational dialogue into the system, it may be possible to establish newnorms of behaviour, where by countries not only strive to meet targets, but alsoset more demanding ones.

人们希望，在全世界试图避免危险的气候变暖的过程中，此举能够建立对所取得的进展进行定期评估的必要框架。这或许无法强制各国实现目标。但通过建立透明的信息交换机制和定期的国际对话机制，这有可能建立新的行为规范，从而让各国不仅可以努力达成目标，还可以设定更具挑战性的目标。

Inevitably, the deal remains a work inprogress. Trust of the sort that will be required to build solidarity will taketime to develop. The developed world has not inserted into the treaty its commitment to transfer funds to poorer nations in order to help them adapt to alow carbon future. The commitments beyond 2020 are vague.

这项协议依然是一项未完成的工作，这是不可避免的。构建团结所需的信任还需要时间才能培养起来。发达国家没有在协议中承诺向较贫穷国家提供资金，以帮助它们适应低碳的未来。2020年以后的承诺还很模糊。

Paris is not the end of the matter. It is not even the beginning of the end. The problem will not be solved for years to come. The treaty does however provide a sensible foundation for international co-operation. This opens the door to greater ambition over time. Now a viablepath lies before them, countries must show the courage and foresight to take the next crucial steps.

巴黎不是事情的终点。甚至也不是终点的开端。在未来数年中，问题都不会得到解决。然而，这项协议的确为国际合作提供了合理的基础。这为以后树立更大的抱负打开了大门。一条可行的道路摆在眼前，各国必须表现出踏出关键下一步的勇气和远见。