【普氏】海运费率上涨中国进口煤动力煤（FOB）发盘价承压

海运费率上涨。从澳洲到中国华南的海岬型船运价，从上周的4.5-5美元/吨上涨至现在的5.5-6美元/吨；巴拿马船从加里曼丹到华南的运费上涨了10-20美分，目前是3.8-3.9美元/吨。...



【博海概述】

1、海运费率上涨。从澳洲到中国华南的海岬型船运价，从上周的4.5-5美元/吨上涨至现在的5.5-6美元/吨；巴拿马船从加里曼丹到华南的运费上涨了10-20美分，目前是3.8-3.9美元/吨。

2、海运费率上涨可能很快对中国进口动力煤FOB价格产生降价压力。大矿对澳洲低位发热量5500大卡煤炭发盘价依然是FOB 43-44美元/吨，但是在海运费率上涨的压力下，有传出更低的发盘价FOB 42.50美元/吨。印尼低位发热量3800大卡煤炭一般发盘价在FOB 26-27美元/吨，海运费率上涨后，贸易商称要获得利润，FOB价要压至24.75美元/吨，但这个价格没有矿商会卖。

3、水电发电量增加可能很快会抑制动力煤需求。中国三峡1-3月总计发电330.42亿度，同比上涨31.63亿度，同比增长率为10.6%，主要原因是该地区降雨量增加。广东贸易商预计，雨季可能会持续至之后的两个月，中国动力煤需求或将继续疲软。

Rising freight rates put pressure on thermal coal offers into China

海运费率上涨中国进口煤动力煤（FOB）发盘价承压

【普氏•国际煤炭贸易商 4月12日报道 翻译：LiangHy】

Singapore, Beijing—Rising freight rates could soon start putting downward pressure on FOB prices for imported thermal coal offered into China, sources said Tuesday.

周二（12日）消息称，海运费率上涨可能很快对中国进口动力煤FOB价格产生降价压力。

A market source said the Capesize freight rate from Australia to south China was $5.50-$6/mt Tuesday, up from $4.50-$5/mt last week.

市场消息称，从澳洲到中国华南的海岬型船运价，从上周的4.5-5美元/吨上涨至现在的5.5-6美元/吨。

A few trades last week were heard concluded for May loading at $42.80-$43/mt FOB, according to a Singapore-based trader.

据新加坡贸易商说，上周有少量（澳洲煤）成交，装载期为5月份煤炭FOB价为42.8-43美元/吨。

Sources said big miners were still offering Australian 5,500 kcal/kg NAR at $43-$44/mt FOB but a lower offer at $42.50/mt FOB was heard amid pressure from rallying freight rates.

大矿对澳洲低位发热量5500大卡煤炭发盘价依然是FOB 43-44美元/吨，但是在海运费率上涨的压力下，有传出更低的发盘价FOB 42.50美元/吨。

The trader in Singapore said his bid for a May-loading cargo of Australian 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal was $42-$42.50/mt FOB.

新加坡贸易商说，他对装载期5月份低位发热量5500大卡澳洲煤还盘价为FOB 42.50美元/吨。

Offers of Indonesian cargoes were also feeling the pressure on FOB prices, as Panamax freight rates from South Kalimantan to south China were heard 10-20 cents higher at $3.80-$3.90/mt.

印尼煤的FOB发盘价依然感觉承压，因为巴拿马船从加里曼丹到华南的运费上涨了10-20美分，目前是3.8-3.9美元/吨。

A Shanghai-based trader said he still had three to four cargoes of 3,800 kcal/kg NAR coal available for May loading, but might have to lower the FOB offer price due to rising freight rates.

一位上海贸易商说，他还有3-4船低位发热量3800大卡货物，装载期为5月份，但是由于海运费上涨，FOB价格可能要下降。

A trader in Indonesia said Chinese bids for 3,800 kcal/kg NAR coal were at $31/mt CFR river port, where there were vessel draft restrictions.

一位印尼贸易商称，中国一河港（有船舶吃水限制）对低位发热量3800大卡煤炭CFR还盘价为31美元/吨。

He said freight rates for 40,000 mt vessels were around $5.75/mt from Indonesia to China, adding that to make some margin, he had to procure cargoes from miners at a maximum of $24.75/mt FOB. “No one will sell at that price,” the Indonesian-based trader said, adding that offers for this grade were generally heard at $26-$27/mt FOB and with tough negotiation, a deal could possibly be closed at $26/mt FOB.

他说印尼到中国4万吨船舶运费5.75美元/吨，如果要获得利润，他必须压低矿方的FOB价至24.75美元/吨。“这个价格没有人会卖”一个印尼贸易商说，该品质煤炭一般发盘价在FOB 26-27美元/吨，经过艰难的谈判最终成交价可能会在26美元/吨。

A Qinhuangdao-based trader said stocks in the northern ports were high, but there was tightness in supply for certain specifications. He was offered a spot shipment of domestic 5,000 kcal/kg NAR coal with 0.8% sulfur at around Yuan 350/mt and 5,500 kcal/kg NAR at Yuan 385-390/mt FOB.

秦皇岛贸易商说，北方港库存现处高位，但是部分煤种供应紧张。他对低位发热量5000大卡硫份0.8%的国内现货煤FOB发盘价为350元/吨，低位发热量5500大卡FOB价为385-390元/吨。

There was an offer heard for spot domestic 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal with 0.8% sulfur at Yuan 445/mt ex-stocks at Guangzhou Port, or around Yuan 395/mt FOB Qinhuangdao Port after deducting coastal freight and port service fees. “This price is still around Yuan 10/mt higher than our expectations,” a Guangdong-based trader said. “For low-sulfur material [less than 0.5% sulfur], such a price will be reasonable.”

低位发热量5500大卡硫份0.8%国内现货煤广州港库提价445元/吨，或者是FOB秦皇岛395元/吨（不含运费和港口服务费）。“这些价格依然比我们预期的高10元/吨”，一位广东贸易商说，“对于低硫煤（硫份低于0.5%）这个价格就是合理的。”

Hydropower ramps up

水电发电量上涨

Sources said increased hydropower output could also soon curb demand for thermal coal. China Three Gorges Corporation’s hydropower units generated a total 33.042 billion kWh of electricity over January-March, up 3.163 billion kWh or 10.6% on year, due to increased rainfall in the region.

消息称水电发电量增加可能很快会抑制动力煤需求。中国三峡1-3月总计发电330.42亿度，同比上涨31.63亿度，同比增长率为10.6%，主要原因是该地区降雨量增加。

“Now that the rainy season is expected to continue for the next couple of months, China’s thermal coal demand may remain muted,” the Guangdong-based trader said.

“雨季可能会持续至之后的两个月，中国动力煤需求或将继续疲软”一位广东贸易商说。

The PCC 1 price of domestic thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal/kg NAR traded at Qinhuangdao port was assessed at Yuan 381.50/mt FOB Tuesday, up Yuan 1.50 day on day, and the PCC 2 price of 5,000 kcal/kg NAR domestic coal FOB Qinhuangdao basis rising Yuan 2 at Yuan 343/mt.

PCC1指数报381.50元/吨（低位发热量5500大卡国内煤，秦皇岛FOB价），日环比上涨1.5元/吨；PCC2指数报343元/吨（低位发热量5000大卡国内煤，秦皇岛FOB价），日环比上涨2元/吨；

The PCC 6 price of 3,800 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal delivered to South China was assessed at $30.85/mt CFR, up 15 cents on-day, and the PCC 7 price of 4,700 kcal/kg NAR imported thermal coal at $41.60/mt on a delivered China basis, increasing 10 cents from Monday.

PCC 6指数报30.85美元/吨（低位发热量3800大卡动力煤CFR华南价），日环比上涨15美分；PCC 7指数报41.60美元/吨（低位发热量4700大卡动力煤CFR华南价），日环比上涨10美分。

The PCC 8 price of 5,500 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal was assessed at $47.50/mt CFR South China, gaining 20 cents.

PCC 8指数报47.50美元/吨（低位发热量5500大卡动力煤CFR华南价），日环比上涨20美分。

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