20160422 星期五，晴，空气质量好

今天封面作者和昨天一样，都是一位前卫的姑娘...





1.昨天下午5点，市场上有人在大举买入ffk6，加息预期就要来了。这种情况下，美元肯定升值，对大宗有一定影响。主要考虑：1）伊朗说5月会议会有协议，俄罗斯不屌他。第一印象是负面，但伊朗核利比亚是四月会议流产的主要原因，这次是伊朗愿意谈了，应该是利多。2）brent近端backdation了（昨天下午6:20又有消息说伊朗在强烈表态）。总之，认为大宗这一波还没有走完，想再等等.。今早再看，还好，43+，ffr升1bp，比预期小很多。但是最多一周，美元就要走强了。下周三之前一定要清掉A股。

初请太强劲了，再次强化对美国经济的信心。

A股盘前，如果A股周三调整是因为水量不够的话，今天央妈只要放水1k就差不多了，拭目以待。2.4k！

市场的确对ecb没有预期，但不代表没人不拿这说事儿。Ecb时刻，白银上下5点振幅啊，也是醉了。Mario果然说“WE NEVER DISCUSSED IT”，算是给炒作hm的一耳光吗？

BAML预计下周BOJ 会double ETF购买

Mario说美资发行人的债券也可被ecb购买



2.GEORGE SARAVELOS : ECB summary_还是有部分市场在很强烈预期hm或者fiscal easing。但是ecb昨天开会时金融市场至少运行良好，对于监管当局提出hm就不是很迫切

on the three main questions had highlighted at the beginning-negative rates --> confirms they can't go much deeper but leaves prospect of moderate cut open, ie nothing to change market pricing

-FX --> implicitly signals discomfort by referencing tightening financial conditions and divergent policy but respects shanghai accord-helicopter money --> nothing new, but its interesting he refuses to rule it our or is not even critical of it in sharp contrast to Carney, Stevens, Poloz in recent days

For FX, in daily we argued there was a risk market tries to take EUR/USD up to 1.15 which is where the real rate differential lies. But big picture, little here to change the outlook。日间有人认为eur有望升至1.15上方，但实际上几乎没人（弱欧元）改变了预期。

3.奥黑演讲词，太美了——脱欧基本上是小概率事件，应该对英镑重新定价了

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/21/as-your-friend-let-me-tell-you-that-the-eu-makes-britain-even-gr/

As your friend, let me tell you that the EU makes Britain even greater

In 1939, President Franklin D Roosevelt offered a toast to King George VI in the White House. "I am persuaded that the greatest single contribution our two countries have been enabled to make to civilisation, and to the welfare of peoples throughout the world," he said, "is the example we have jointly set by our manner of conducting relations between our two nations."

Nearly 80 years later, the United Kingdom remains a friend and ally to the United States like no other. Our special relationship was forged as we spilt blood together on the battlefield. It was fortified as we built and sustained the architecture for advancing stability and prosperity in Europe, and our democratic values around the globe. From the ashes of war, those who came before us had the foresight to create the international institutions and initiatives to sustain a prosperous peace: the United Nations and Nato; Bretton Woods, the Marshall Plan, and the European Union. Their efforts provided a foundation for democracy, open markets, and the rule of law, while underwriting more than seven decades of relative peace and prosperity in Europe.

4.Oil is still the king,虽然过气儿的

Subject: EOD Oil Note - 21 Apr

Oil ended lower today, after Libya indicated they can quickly ramp up output if stability returns. USD sold off after ECB, but was bought back quickly leading to a choppy market for most of the commodity complex. News flow was relatively light today.

- Libya NOC’s chairman Sanalla said today that Libya will unite the two rival factions of the NOC in the next few weeks and will be able to double oil output (from current 360kbd) within weeks after if the new unity government is formed. The UN backed unity govt is still not approved by Tobruk house of reps, but efforts are underway to restore stability in the region. Libya aims to restore production to 1mbd by year end if peace is restored. Although Libyan production was 1.6mbd before disruptions, bringing back output will be challenging given the state of infrastructure. Moreover, the peace talks led by UN have been largely unsuccessful and there is little evidence of any progress till now.

- Saudi exports for last week were estimated at 7.25mbd, bringing April average to 6.9mbd, still lower than 7.48mbd for March（传言沙特本地消费大增）. Exports from the kingdom are set to fall further in May with 0.4mbd estimated production maintenance and stocking for summer burn.

- China’s implied oil demand for March fell by 0.32mbd y/y to 10.30mbd, lead by apparent diesel demand falling by 0.44mbd. However, this doesn’t include demand fulfilled through stock draws, and March inventory figures should indicate heavy diesel stock draw and higher actual demand. Gasoline demand was up 0.2mbd (7.7%) y/y. China crude imports were strong in March again (7.7mbd), slightly lower than record Feb imports (8.027mbd)

[cid:image001.png@01D19BDF.2A200990]

- In physical markets, West African grades were under pressure today, as the grades get priced against dated brent which has been trading at strong premium to Dubai and WTI reducing interest from Asian and North American buyers. North Sea diffs were weak as well and traded at lowest in 2 weeks, as surplus of April barrel grows. No VLCCs have been reported to depart for Asia this month, but one is being used to store Forties for next month.

5.

Commodities Digest - Silver overtaking gold

{http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1990-FAC0/13800298/DB_CommodsWkly_2016-04-22_0900b8c08b0b1a43.pdf}

Silver: Overtaking gold, but how much further to go?



Silver is known by a number of pseudonyms, but most of the names in a financial context relate to gold; "Poor man's gold" and "High-beta gold" to name just two. It is therefore not surprising that silver's value is often referenced to gold in terms of the gold-silver ratio. Since the infamous Hunt brother's cornered the market and were unceremoniously squeezed out in the late 70's / early 80's, silver has tended to amplify gold's trading patterns, both on the upside and on the downside. The silver revaluation cycles tend to be multi-year, with earlier cycles as long as a decade. We are not suggesting that this is the cusp on a long term rerating cycle but even within a de-rating cycle, silver can remain dormant and underperform gold for significant periods before suddenly catching up; it tends to be a late cycle play in the precious metals space. When this happens, it tends to happen quickly as has been the case this week. Silver is now up 25% year to date, versus gold at 18%. We think momentum could carry silver as high as USD20/oz in the near term.

In order to see a continued rerating of silver versus gold, we need to see a number of financial conditions either continue or for momentum to continue. The first is a favourable environment for precious metals in general. The dovish Fed, an accommodative ECB and market expectations of a low probability of a Fed hike in the near term means that the financial conditions for gold remain favourable. In our view, a near-term catalyst to drive gold higher is not obvious, but we think the metal remains well supported. The long-term gold silver ratio (since 1973) is 57.7. The more recent range is however 85 during the depths of the global financial crisis to 35 during the period of recovery and unprecedented Quantitative Easing; Figure 2. If gold stays relatively range bound at c.USD1,250/oz, a silver rerating to 66.6 (the average 1983 – 2003), the silver could trade up to USD18.8/oz, and a silver rerating to 61.1 (the average since 2003), then silver could trade as high as USD20.5/oz.

The key question is what other conditions are required for silver to continue rerating versus gold. There are specific catalysts such as the launch of the first silver ETF in 2006. Silver is more of an industrial metal compared to gold with c.60% of demand from industrial applications, versus gold at less than 10% of demand. We note that when the US ISM rises sharply or continuously over an extended period, silver tends to rerate as investor global growth expectations improve dramatically. The corollary also applies that when the US ISM falls, silver tends to de-rate versus gold (Chart 3). More recently, we note that the gold silver ratio also shows some sensitivity to the China manufacturing PMI (Chart 4). We expect both the US ISM and the China manufacturing PMI to show positive momentum over the next few months, which is positive for a silver rerating. The change in sentiment towards silver is being reflected in positive ETF inflows, which up to now have been quite stable, especially in light of the sharp price falls (Chart 5). Investor positioning is however close to record net long levels on the Comex, so for momentum to continue, we would expect new record net long positions to be printed (Chart 6).

Base Metal positioning: reluctant bulls

Base metal positioning on the LME has continued to turn more bullish since the turn in mid January. Positioning is by no means extreme is well off record levels which suggests to us that investors (Money Managers on the LME) remain skeptical of the longevity of the cyclical upswing in China. The exception is zinc, which on this gauge is the most preferred base metal. Money manager net longs now represent 13% of the open interest on the LME versus a peak of 22% in June last year. We continue to favour zinc as our preferred base metal, but concede that for pricing to move higher, we need to see incrementally better macro data points from China.

Crude Oil: Fundamentals supportive of a flattening curve 看起来油价似乎要看不懂地涨起来

The weekly data from the US was supportive in that a modest build in inventory occurred despite a pickup in imports. This was accompanied by an on-trend decline in production and strong product demand for a second week driven by gasoline. In fact US product demand has strengthened enough that it could eventually justify lifting our conservative assumption for US demand at flat this year. Altogether this supports improving sentiment which took a tremendous leap forward as far as longer Brent positioning from 198 to 238 thousand contracts defying expectations of a reversion to the mean. This was the largest weekly increase in net long positioning since April 2014 and was as much a cutback in short positioning as it was an extension of length. A flattening forward curve has moved in lockstep with sentiment to the tightest level since late 2014.

Outside the US, consistent signs of decline in non-OPEC ex-US production from an assortment of producers in March data suggest that our 2017 assumption of non-OPEC production is too high and could be revised lower by several hundred thousand barrels per day. Although some declines may be owed to unplanned outages which could recover later this year (e.g., Colombia), several other cases are more likely to extend to further decline next year (e.g., Mexico, Kazakhstan). For the fundamental balance this would likely make 2017 a net deficit year on average, meaning that we could expect global inventory to fall between now and H2-2017. Since the market has clearly moved past any expectation of OPEC action this narrows the number of scenarios which would imply a retest of Q1 lows.

6.US Daily Economic Notes - Manufacturing back in the doldrums? 21 April 2016 (1 page/ 242 kb)

Commentary for Friday: The April Philadelphia Fed survey（三星级数据，主要是可能意味着ism下去，但似乎问题不大） unexpectedly softened, nearly reversing the previous month's improvement. To wit, the headline figure was -1.6, compared to 12.4 in March. Remember that the headline index is based on a separate question on the survey; the various subcomponents are not used to construct it. We can see in the chart below that when the details are used to create an ISM-adjusted series, the Philadelphia Fed figures imply a sub-50 manufacturing ISM reading. The ISM-adjusted Philadelphia Fed figure is 43.1 in April, compared to 51.7 in March. April's reading is the lowest since July 2009 (41.9), which was only one month after the recession ended. The component of the Philadelphia Fed survey that decreased the most was shipments, which plunged nearly -33 points in the month, the biggest decline since January 2001 (-34.6 points). But employment (-18.5 in April vs. -1.1 in March) and new orders (0.0 vs. 15.7) also fell substantially this month. The readings on supplier deliveries (-9.9 vs. 0.3) and inventories (-20.5 vs. -12.7) were also lower. In terms of the manufacturing ISM (49.0 forecast vs. 51.8 previously), we now expect the series to fall back below 50 when the data are released on May 2.

As we wrote a few weeks ago, excessive inventory building poses ongoing risk to the factory sector, meaning there is a risk that production and hence employment would have to decline as stockpiles are reduced to a level more consistent with underlying demand. If the manufacturing ISM survey were to remain near 50 this quarter, the projected Q2 bounce back in real GDP would likely be very modest. Remember, too, that the Fed has almost never raised interest rates when the manufacturing ISM survey has been below 50. Consequently, if the data were to remain soft, the probability of a June FOMC rate hike would remain low and perhaps drop further. At the time of writing, the futures market was pricing roughly a 22% chance of a 25 basis-point interest rate hike in June (and a 63% probability of a hike by December).

Despite the weak Philadelphia Fed report, jobless claims made a new cyclical low, down -6k to 247k. The last time claims were this low was November 1973. Since the data cover the employment survey week, there is a high likelihood we will see another sturdy gain in payrolls when the April data are released on May 6. Despite these impressively low claims, the trend in employee tax withholding receipts continues to slow—they are currently growing at only around a 3% year-over-year rate, compared to nearly 6% growth at this time last year. Going forward, it is likely that either claims will rise or tax receipts will accelerate (or both), because the divergence between the two series is unusual. Stay tuned. _工资预缴税增长低于就业增长，作者认为或者初请增，或者预缴税增，可能后者吧

    关注 随手札记